It certainly was a wild football weekend, with two games decided by late field goals, one game set to go to time, and the AFC’s top two seeds losing. The Patriots’ impressive comeback in San Diego was a field day for doubters. Certainly the Chargers’ Marlon McCree interception and fumble was San Diego’s most talked about mistake, but there were plenty of other things that were significant.

WR Brandon Marshall had a near TD pass in the second half of the goal with a foot barely touched outside the end zone. The Chargers had numerous dropped passes, three fumbles, one interception and allowed a New England TD pass with 8 seconds remaining in the first half. All were instrumental in allowing New England to stay close and recover late.

Tipsters should approach game analysis in a similar way: Don’t look at one play as decisive for a game, but many interlinked factors are more likely to better explain the outcome. The Chargers showed just how talented they are, with 123 rushing yards from LaDainian Tomlinson, allowing just 51 rushing yards from the Patriots and intercepting three passes from Tom Brady. Do you think keeping quarterback Drew Brees could have made a difference? We will never know.

In the NFC, the Bears were expected to be one of the best teams in the NFC, while the Saints are this year’s Cinderella story. The Saints’ offense is No. 1 in the NFL (391 yards per game) and New Orleans is 6-2 SU, 7-1 ATS on the road. They are also 6-3 SU/7-2 ATS as a dog!

The Bears defense will have a test against this potent offense. Saints quarterback Drew Brees completed passes of 35, 29, 28, 23, 21 and 19 yards to six receivers to beat the Eagles this weekend. Chicago’s defense suffered injuries late in the season and struggled down the stretch, allowing 27, 31, 21, 26 and 24 points in the last five games. This doesn’t seem like the dominant unit that roared through the first eight games of the season. One question to consider: If Seahawks RB Shaun Alexander can rush for 108 yards and a 4.2 average, what could Reggie Bush and Deuce McAllister do?

In the AFC, old rivals New England and Indy battle it out. The Patriots held the Colts to 14 and 3 points during the 2003 and 2004 playoffs, but those games were in frigid New England. This time, Peyton Manning is playing at home, where the Colts haven’t lost since the Steelers beat them 21-18 in the playoffs more than a year ago.

The Patriots left the running game on Sunday against San Diego, passing 51 times. However, look for them to return to their preferred balanced offense this weekend, using running backs Laurence Maroney and Corey Dillon. And don’t expect quarterbacks to be as bad as they’ve been: Brady has thrown 3 INTs on Sunday, while Manning has a TD and 5 INTs so far in the playoffs!

It’s interesting that after losing 21-0 in Miami, Bill Belichick released WR Doug Gabriel, Brady called his teammates to start listening to the coaching staff more, and the offensive line shaved off all their beards and refused to speak to the staff. media for several weeks. while they focused on improving. The Pats are 5-0 SU/ATS since then, winning three times as a dog.

The Colts are 2-0 SU/ATS the past two seasons against the Patriots, scoring 40 and 27 points. The Colts are also 9-0 SU, 6-3 ATS at home this season, though the Patriots are 8-1 SU/ATS on the road! It’s power against power, not to mention two veteran quarterbacks, and the winner of this game will be the favorite for the Super Bowl.